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This book provides an undergraduate-level introduction to discrete and continuous-time Markov chains and their applications, with a particular focus on the first step analysis technique and its applications to average hitting times and ruin probabilities. It also discusses classical topics such as recurrence and transience, stationary and limiting distributions, as well as branching processes. It first examines in detail two important examples (gambling processes and random walks) before presenting the general theory itself in the subsequent chapters. It also provides an introduction to discrete-time martingales and their relation to ruin probabilities and mean exit times, together with a chapter on spatial Poisson processes. The concepts presented are illustrated by examples, 138 exercises and 9 problems with their solutions.

Anbieter: buecher

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28,11 € *

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Anbieter: buecher

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48,77 € *

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Both in insurance and in finance applications, questions involving extremal events (such as large insurance claims, large fluctuations, in financial data, stock-market shocks, risk management, ...) play an increasingly important role. This much awaited book presents a comprehensive development of extreme value methodology for random walk models, time series, certain types of continuous-time stochastic processes and compound Poisson processes, all models which standardly occur in applications in insurance mathematics and mathematical finance. Both probabilistic and statistical methods are discussed in detail, with such topics as ruin theory for large claim models, fluctuation theory of sums and extremes of iid sequences, extremes in time series models, point process methods, statistical estimation of tail probabilities. Besides summarising and bringing together known results, the book also features topics that appear for the first time in textbook form, including the theory of subexponential distributions and the spectral theory of heavy-tailed time series. A typical chapter will introduce the new methodology in a rather intuitive (tough always mathematically correct) way, stressing the understanding of new techniques rather than following the usual "theorem-proof" format. Many examples, mainly from applications in insurance and finance, help to convey the usefulness of the new material. A final chapter on more extensive applications and/or related fields broadens the scope further. The book can serve either as a text for a graduate course on stochastics, insurance or mathematical finance, or as a basic reference source. Its reference quality is enhanced by a very extensive bibliography, annotated by various comments sections making the book broadly and easily accessible. "A reader's first impression on leafing through this book is of the large number of graphs and diagrams, used to illustrate shapes of distributions...and to show real data examples in various ways. A closer reading reveals a nice mix of theory and applications, with the copious graphical illustrations alluded to. Such a mixture is of course dear to the heart of the applied probabilist/statistician, and should impress even the most ardent theorists." --MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS

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48,77 € *

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Anbieter: buecher

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59,00 € *

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This thesis discusses Lévy processes and Lévy copulas. In connection with Lévy processes we treat some of the theory behind infinitely divisible distributions, acknowledging that the two classes are equivalent.Within the class of Lévy processes we will mostly look at stable processes and compound Poisson processes. The theory of Lévy processes dates back to the late 1920 s, after de Finetti first introduced the class of infinitely divisible distributions. Since then Lévy processes have become popular tools for modelling in finance, insurance and physics. Lévy copulas were introduced by Peter Tankov in 2003 in order to model dependency between different components of a multivariate Lévy process. In the last part of the book we present an application of Lévy copulas in non-life insurance and ruin theory of a Lévy copula. Through this example we will discuss aspects regarding estimation of the parameters and goodness of fit.

Anbieter: Dodax

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31,87 € *

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Anbieter: Dodax

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134,00 CHF *

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This book is intended as a text for a first course in stochastic processes at the upper undergraduate or graduate levels, assuming only that the reader has had a serious calculus course-advanced calculus would even be better-as well as a first course in probability (without measure theory). In guiding the student from the simplest classical models to some of the spatial models, currently the object of considerable research, the text is aimed at a broad audience of students in biology, engineering, mathematics, and physics. The first two chapters deal with discrete Markov chains-recurrence and tran sience, random walks, birth and death chains, ruin problem and branching pro cesses-and their stationary distributions. These classical topics are treated with a modem twist: in particular, the coupling technique is introduced in the first chap ter and is used throughout. The third chapter deals with continuous time Markov chains-Poisson process, queues, birth and death chains, stationary distributions. The second half of the book treats spatial processes. This is the main difference between this work and the many others on stochastic processes. Spatial stochas tic processes are (rightly) known as being difficult to analyze. The few existing books on the subject are technically challenging and intended for a mathemat ically sophisticated reader. We picked several interesting models-percolation, cellular automata, branching random walks, contact process on a tree-and con centrated on those properties that can be analyzed using elementary methods.

Anbieter: Orell Fuessli CH

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72,99 € *

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Anbieter: Thalia AT

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